I. Introduction

A.   Democratic govt is govt by “the consent of the governed”

B.   Elections allow people to choose among competing candidates and parties and to decide who will occupy public office

C.   They also give people the opportunity to pass judgment on current officeholders, either by reelecting them or by throwing them out of office

D.   As our text suggests, our electoral system permits registered voters to vote more often and for more offices than citizens in any other democracy—perhaps a reason voter turnout #s so low

F.    Today we examine the process of deciding “who” governs at the NATIONAL level

Democratic Party: Obama and Biden

Barak Obama and Joe Biden

II. Power and Ambition

A.   Dr T's ("stolen" from Professor Dye) 1^st rule of NATIONAL politics is this: personal ambition is a driving force. Politics definitely attracts people for whom POWER and CELEBRITY—the public attention, deference, name recognition, and social status that accompany public office—are more impt than $$$, leisure, or privacy

B.   Thus, political ambition is the MOST distinguishing characteristic of elected officials—they might not be the most intelligent, informed, best looking, or wealthy—but they are clearly the most politically ambitious

C.   Most of them certainly have tougher skins than most people given what they have to put up with...Gore Vidal once said about policitians that "they aren't like you and me". This is true.

i. Let's see why this is likely the case...

III. Constitutional Requirements

A.   To achieve their ambitions, politicians must meet certain basic Constitutional requirements

B.   Constitutional Requirements for Office: are very few, and are found in Article’s I & II

a. President: natural born citizen; resident for at least 14 years; and at least 35 years old (pretty open system...perhaps a little too open if you know what I mean [cranks like Ross Perot, Pat Robertson, etc get to run too :)...just kidding. I'm happy the system is relatively open to people outside of the "inside" get to make a case for this office too].

b. Senate: resident of state from which one is elected; a citizen for AT LEAST 9 years; at least 30 years old

c. House of Representatives: resident of state from which one is elected—must live in district except in 2 states; citizen for at least 7 years; at least 25 years old

C.   Voter Eligibility: very basic

a. basically, anyone over the age of 18 that is not a felon or in jail or on probation and is a resident of the state 30 days prior to a Presidential election (thanks to Voting Rights Act of 1970) can vote

b. 19^th Amendment: 1920…women granted the right to vote

c. 26^th Amendment: 1971…voting age lowered from from 21 to 18

IV. Political Talents and Attitudes Necessary (Usually) to Win Ntl Elections

A. Political Temperament: perhaps the most impt personal qualification is the willingness to work long & hard, to live, eat, and breath politics every day for months on end, and to have the willingness to put up with the media digging thru your and your family’s lives, as well as being on the phone ½ the day begging for $$ then you have the right TEMPERAMENT for political campaigningàbook discusses DETERMINATION (lack of privacy, grueling schedule, family life interrupted, scrutiny of life/record, $$$)

1. some successful politicians (Nixon; Gore; Jefferson) view the campaign experience as a torture they must endure to gain high office and exercise power

2. But most love the process and the campaign (Johnson; Clinton; Bush II) —trench warfare—like sports (winners and losers/scoreboard)

B. Communication Skills: In the media age, being able to communicate with others is crucial. Politicians must be able to talk, talk, and talk, and talk—to large audiences, in press conferences and interviews, on TV, to reporters, to small groups of financial contributors, on the phone, at airports to their staffs, etc

1. In the TV age, it matters less what they say than how they look and sound saying it: they try to communicate sincerity, compassion, confidence, ideas and good humor

C. Professionalism: the age of “citizen officeholders”—the old 19^th century notion of the citizen-legislator—is over. Politics has become “professionalized” by career politicians and career staffers and bureaucrats who engage in the game of politics FULL TIME not part time

V. Running for President: and the Nominees Are…

A.   The pool of those who can mount a serious campaign for the presidency is a small one. And how they get from this pool to the point where political elites are seriously considering nominating them is rather mysterious

B.   Who Runs?

1.     Must meet eligibility requirements

2.     Most of those who run for their party’s nomination are members of Congress, Governors or sitting vice presidents…

3.     ***Sometimes they come from other walks of life to make a serious bid for higher officeàMilitary (Ike, Wesley Clark), Business (Steve Forbes, Ross Perot), or Religion (Pat Robertson)

4. The vast majority of candidates for the office of the President, HOWEVER, are either currently holding political office or have just left it (90% of 20^th century candidates)

C.   Who gets Nominated?

1. When examining all presidential nominations since 1960, some primary spawning grounds stand out:

a. 7 candidates—Kennedy (1960), Goldwater (1964), McGovern (1972), Dole (1996), Kerry (2004), McCain (2008), Obama (2008)—came directly from the Senate

b. 6 candidates—Nixon (1960, 1968, 1972), Johnson (1964), Humphrey (1968), Ford (1976), Mondale (1984), Bush (1988, 1992), and Gore (2000)--were sitting or former vice-presidents.

c. Also, 2 of those vice-presidents—Johnson and Ford—acceded to the presidency via assassination and resignation and then ran as incumbents

d. Also of interest is the fact that before becoming vice-presidents, Nixon, Johnson, Humphrey, Mondale, and Gore all served in the Senate

e. Finally, 5 former governors--Carter (GA, 1976), Reagan (CA, 1980, 1984), Dukakis (MA, 1988), Clinton (ARK, 1992 & 1996), and Bush (TX, 1994, 98)—won their party nominations...

i. last two cycles it has been a Senate dominated process (ie Kerry, McCain, Obama)...

f.  On the other hand: it is very difficult for sitting members of the House of Representatives to win their party’s nomination.

i. Some, such as Dick Gephardt (D-Missouri), Jack Kemp (R-NY) and Ron Paul (2008) have made the effort but failed to win the nomination-Gephardt tried again last cycle (2004) and lost AGAIN

ii. In other words, it is probably better for a Rep to first run for higher office—such as Senate, or Governor, or become a sitting Vice-POTUS—then run for president

g. 4 recent Presidents—Carter, Reagan, Clinton and "W" Bush—ALL claimed that spending their careers outside of Washington DC was an advantage in that they would NOT be constrained by the normal political rules of Washington...

i. Given the mood today (anger on both the left and right, tea party movement etc), I wouldn't doubt that someone OUTSIDE the system (Michael Bloomberg, Glen Beck, Lou Dobbs) tries to make an independent run for the presidency-stranger things have happened right?

h. This streak of governors or Vice-Presidents becoming POTUS was broken in 2008 as McCain and Obama were BOTH sitting Senators. The last time a sitting Senator became POTUS was obviously JFK...BOTH men were inside the beltway politicians, regardless of how they campaigned--Both campaigned as "agents of change" though the country eventually settled on a candidate articulating the message of "change we can believe in" (as opposed to change we can't apparently)...

i. This was also the first campaign since 1952 (56 years) where neither a sitting President nor his vice-President was on the ticket. It was therefore a truly "open" election. The field ultimately narrowed to two, Senator Obama and Senator McCain.

VI. The Primary Route

A. Primaries have NOT always played the prominent role that they do now.

B. Before 1972, candidates in both parties were selected by delegates at Party Nominating Conventions—bosses making choices in back-filled rooms

C. Over time, the nomination process has been democratized--by replacing the rule of the party bosses at the Party Conventions with competitive primaries—there are now 40 states that rely on primaries to select their nominee, 10 that rely on caucuses

D.   So the process is more democratic, the nomination process is now a marathon, w/campaigns beginning in earnest shortly after the last congressional election

1.  $$$ is hugely important—to pay for tv ads, media consultants, political strategists, pollsters, handlers, schedule organizers, regular and volunteer staff, etc

2. Strong campaign skills are crucial, as is raising enuf $ and hiring a great staff

3.  In short and in sum, as Bill Clinton displayed in abundance, the US may be nominating people who are more skilled at campaigning than at governing (Bush and Obama might be people we can put in this category as well)

VII. The General Election

A.   What the hell IS the Electoral College? Below please find some answers:

1) School House Rock explanation

2) Electoral College Debate

3) Rob Ritchie Argument Against the Electoral College

4) Larry Sabato's Argument Against the Electoral College

B. In essence, voters choose a president indirectly thru the electoral college (See pages 187-190), which is composed of electors pledged to one of the candidates. Each of the parties has procedures for electing these ELECTORS

B.   Each state is accorded 1 electoral vote for each of its Senators and Reps—so California has 55, Florida 27, Texas 34, Vermont 3 and so on—See Electoral College Map

C.   538 total, need a majority to win (270)

D.   The candidate needs a plurality in most states (Nebraska and Maine the lone exceptions) to win that state's slate of electors.

E.   The general election is every four years--always held on the 1^st Tuesday after the 1^st Monday in November in even numbered years

F.    As we found out in the 2000 election, it is possible for a candidate to win a majority or plurality of the popular vote and lose the election in the electoral college--happened in 1824, 1876, and 1888 and then again for the 1^st time in over 100 years, in 2000

H.   Electoral College Strategy: each party has their respective EC strategies and regional strengths. Parties devise strategies to attract voters in “swing” states like:

a.     Republican Party Strongholds: South Moutain West, the Plains states

b.     Democratic Party Strongholds: Far West, North East

c.     Swing/Battleground States 2008 (NYT, 9/15/08); Karl Rove's Election 2008 State of the Race (9/17/08); 270 to Win; Vote from Abroad EC Map; Politico.com EC Map

I.      Other Factors:

a.     candidate personal appeal                    e. personal character

b.     knowledge of issues                                f. incumbency

c.     speaking/debating ability                      g. socioeconomic factors

d.     ability to earn free media coverage      h. national tides

J.      Individual vote choices: can be explained as products of long term forces which operate over a series of elections and short term forces which are associated with particular elections

1.      Party ID is the most important long term factor in voting choice. That is, more than half the electorate decides how to vote before the general election based on their affiliation and allegiance to either major party

2.     Short term forces include voter perceptions of candidates personal characteristic like sex appeal, trustworthiness, leadership, or caring are important.

3.     Other short term factors such as the candidates stand on the issues or his/her policy positions are found to be much less important to voters than party id or the candidates image